Ohio Analysis

Obama won Ohio by maintaining margins that were only slightly below his 2008 performance.  He only under performed by about 1% in the four most populous counties. 

 

He won Cuyahoga by 38.5 points (39.3 in 2008), Franklin by 22.1 points (21.0 in 2008), Hamilton by 5 (7.1 in 2008), and Summit by 15.0 (17.4 in 2008).  These counties represented 1,753,219 total votes, over 61% of which went to Obama in 2012.  Cuyahoga County actually increased turnout over 2008.

While Romney attacked Obama in the coal-rich southern Appalachian counties of the state, Obama remarkably improved on his 2008 performance there. Although he lost most of these counties (excep Athens) in both 2008 and 2012, he actually performed better in most of the southeastern counties – especially in Ross when he out performed 2008 numbers by 5.4%.

Republicans pointed to gains that they made in early vote in 2012 over 2008, expecting that they would then win Election Day soundly. However, only 3.5% of the Republican early voters were first time voters. This compares to 12.2% of Democratic early voters. A full third of Republican early voters were “Super Voters”, who turn out in every, or almost every election, while only a quarter of Democratic early voters were.

(Above analysis with 98.2 Percent Reporting)

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