An Early Look at FL Results

With approximately 90% of Florida precincts reporting and the Presidential contest yet to be decided, some interesting trends are emerging….

 

President Obama appears to be poised (pending the final vote tally) to build on his already strong 2008 margins in some key regions of the state; most notably in Miami-Dade and Osceola Counties.  In north Florida, Mitt Romney made only incremental progress over John McCain’s performance in 2008, likely not enough to produce a statewide victory.  The President largely maintained his strong 2008 performance in Duval County, trailing Romney by less than 4%. Mitt Romney is seeing his largest gains over 2008 Republican performance in areas like Collier County, accompanied by a large surge in turnout relative to 2008, and cutting into Obama’s margins in Palm Beach County.

Should President Obama prevail in the sunshine state, the campaign’s robust early vote program may deserve much of the credit.

While both campaigns drove massive numbers of voters to cast a ballot prior to Election Day, Republicans largely converted likely voters (those voters who would have almost certainly voted on Election Day) while Democratic early voters were much more likely to be casting a ballot for the first time.

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